Oscars 2025 predictions: Who will win and who should win at the 97th Academy Awards

Oscar season has a way of turning otherwise reasonable people into amateur statisticians, astrologists, and armchair Hollywood prognosticators. We scrutinise guild awards like tea leaves, debate anonymous ballots as if decoding some ancient script, and pore over every campaign stop, hunting for the moment a frontrunner might slip or, just as thrillingly, the instant an underdog catches fire. It’s a ritual built on equal parts math and mythology, and for the 2025 Academy Awards, the script is particularly juicy: a dogfight between two wildly different films, each appealing to a different set of Academy instincts.

On one side, there’s Anora, Sean Baker’s micro-budget Palme d’Or winner about a Brooklyn stripper navigating an absurd collision of sex, power, and capitalism. It’s indie to its bones — raw, rough-around-the-edges, and deeply American. On the other, is Edward Berger’s Vatican thriller, Conclave — a rivetting battle of ideology and secrecy unfolding within the walls of the Sistine.

The two have divvied up the road to the Dolby Theatre in ways that make predicting a winner an act of masochism. Anora steamrolled through the Critics Choice Awards, the Directors Guild, the Producers Guild, and the Writers Guild — powerful signals, all. But the stately European pedigree of Conclavedominated the BAFTAs and, crucially, took home the SAG Ensemble prize, a bellwether of mainstream appeal. And then there’s that confounding preferential ballot, the Academy’s method of voting that has upended more than a few Oscar frontrunners in the past, with this year’s battle hinging on whichever film ends up more broadly liked rather than passionately adored. The PGA win suggests Anora has the momentum, but Conclave’s international-leaning support could swing the other way.

Meanwhile, as Anora and Conclave duke it out, lurking in the wings is The Brutalist, Brady Corbet’s brooding, post-war epic tracing the decades-spanning journey of a Holocaust survivor turned architect. It has ten nominations, including Best Director and Best Actor for Adrien Brody, who, 21 years after his history-making win for The Pianist, is in serious contention to repeat the feat. But standing in his way is Timothée Chalamet, embodying young Bob Dylan in A Complete Unknown with an almost supernatural ease — singing, strumming, and shape-shifting his way into voters’ hearts. Brody has swept the season, but Chalamet’s SAG win signals a live-wire alternative. If he wins, he’ll rather poetically steal Brody’s own record as the youngest Best Actor in Oscar history.

In Best Actress, it’s a generational face-off tailor-made for awards season dramatics. Finally earning her first Oscar nomination at 62, veteran star Demi Moore has reinvented herself in spectacular fashion with The Substance — an audacious body-horror satire that turns the industry’s anxieties about ageing into a grotesque, unforgettable nightmare. Mikey Madison, meanwhile, has ridden a wave of Cannes momentum into her first nomination, her raw performance in Anora being hailed as something of a revelation. Does the Academy reward Moore’s decades-long resilience, or do they crown Madison as the future?

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Further down the ballot, there’s a clash of titans in the writing categories. Conclave has dominated Adapted Screenplay, its tightly wound adaptation of Robert Harris’s novel winning the BAFTA, Critics Choice, and the USC Scripter. But Nickel Boys, based on Colson Whitehead’s blistering Pulitzer Prize-winning novel, has strong support, especially after its Writers Guild win. In Original Screenplay, Anora, A Real Pain, and The Substance have all taken key precursors, making the race a three-way toss-up, though the odds tend to favour the Best Picture favourite in this case.

And then there’s the elephant in the room, Emilia Pérez— Jacques Audiard’s polarising, operatic cartel musical, which, for a moment, seemed poised to be this year’s Everything Everywhere All At Once. It roared out of Cannes with the Jury Prize and actress wins, rode that wave into an astonishing thirteen nominations, and then, controversy. Between a firestorm over star Karla Sofía Gascón’s Twitter history and questions about the film’s authenticity and fidelity to its Mexican setting, its once-certain dominance has been severely dented. Even so, with Zoe Saldaña a likely lock for Supporting Actress and “El Mal” still a major contender for song, it remains the season’s wild card.

With just days to go before the big night, the race is still frustratingly unpredictable, despite a series of conveniently self-inflicted events that have sabotaged many a campaign in true Conclave fashion. Will the Academy anoint Anora, crowning Sean Baker as the new indie king? Will Conclave sweep in as a more traditional alternative? Can Brody fend off Chalamet? And in a season now defined by generational divides — Moore vs. Madison, Brody vs. Chalamet, indie vs. prestige — one final question lingers: does the Academy want to celebrate the past, or embrace the future?

Here is our full list of predictions for the Oscars 2025:

Best Picture

Will Win: Anora

Could Win: Conclave

Should Win: Nickel Boys

Best Director

Will Win: Sean Baker (Anora)

Could Win: Brady Corbet (The Brutalist)

Should Win: Brady Corbet (The Brutalist)

Best Actress

Will Win: Demi Moore (The Substance)

Could Win: Mikey Madison (Anora)

Should Win: Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here)

Best Actor

Will Win: Adrien Brody (The Brutalist)

Could Win: Timothee Chalamet (A Complete Unknown)

Should Win: Colman Domingo (Sing Sing)

Best Supporting Actress

Will Win: Zoe Saldana (Emilia Perez)

Could Win: Isabella Rosselini (Conclave)

Should Win: Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown)

Best Supporting Actor

Will Win: Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain)

Could Win: Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown)

Should Win: Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)

Best Original Screenplay

Will Win: Sean Baker (Anora)

Could Win: Jesse Eisenberg (A Real Pain)

Should Win: Coralie Fargeat (The Substance)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Will Win: Peter Straughan (Conclave)

Could Win: RaMell Ross, Jocelyn Barnes (Nickel Boys)

Should Win: RaMell Ross, Jocelyn Barnes (Nickel Boys)

Best International Feature Film

Will Win:I’m Still Here

Could Win:Emilia Perez

Should Win:The Seed of the Sacred Fig

Best Animated Feature Film

Will Win:The Wild Robot

Could Win:Flow

Should Win:Flow

Best Cinematography

Will Win: Lol Crawley (The Brutalist)

Could Win: Jarin Blaschke (Nosferatu)

Should Win: Lol Crawley (The Brutalist)

Best Film Editing

Will Win: Nick Emerson (Conclave)

Could Win: Sean Baker (Anora)

Should Win: David Jancso (The Brutalist)

Best Original Score

Will Win: Daniel Blumberg (The Brutalist)

Could Win: Volker Bertelmann (Conclave)

Should Win: Daniel Blumberg (The Brutalist)

Best Original Song

Will Win: “El Mal” by Clément Ducol, Camille Dalmais, and Jacques Audiard (Emilia Perez)

Could Win: “The Journey” by Diane Warren (Six Triple Eight)

Should Win: “Like a Bird” by Abraham Alexander and Adrian Quesada (Sing Sing)

Best Sound

Will Win: Gareth John, Richard King, Ron Bartlett and Doug Hemphill (Dune: Part Two)

Could Win: Tod A. Maitland, Donald Sylvester, Ted Caplan, Paul Massey and David Giammarco (A Complete Unknown)

Should Win: Gareth John, Richard King, Ron Bartlett and Doug Hemphill (Dune: Part Two)

Best Production Design

Will Win: Nathan Crowley, Lee Sandales (Wicked)

Could Win: Judy Becker, Patricia Cuccia (The Brutalist)

Should Win: Judy Becker, Patricia Cuccia (The Brutalist)

Best Costume Design

Will Win: Paul Tazewell (Wicked)

Could Win: Linda Muir (Nosferatu)

Should Win: Lisy Christl (Conclave)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Will Win: Pierre-Olivier Persin, Stéphanie Guillon and Marilyne Scarselli (The Substance)

Could Win: Frances Hannon, Laura Blount and Sarah Nuth (Wicked)

Should Win: Pierre-Olivier Persin, Stéphanie Guillon and Marilyne Scarselli (The Substance)

Best Visual Effects

Will Win: Paul Lambert, Stephen James, Rhys Salcombe and Gerd Nefzer (Dune: Part Two)

Could Win: Erik Winquist, Stephen Unterfranz, Paul Story and Rodney Burke (Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes)

Should Win: Paul Lambert, Stephen James, Rhys Salcombe and Gerd Nefzer (Dune: Part Two)

Best Documentary Feature

Will Win:No Other Land

Could Win:Porcelain War

Should Win:No Other Land

Best Documentary Short Subject

Will Win:The Only Girl in the Orchestra

Could Win:I Am Ready, Warden

Should Win:The Only Girl in the Orchestra

Best Live Action Short Film

Will Win:A Lien

Could Win:The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent

Should Win:A Lien

Best Animated Short Film

Will Win:Yuck!

Could Win:Wander to Wonder

Should Win:In the Shadow of the Cypress